Comparison of Group Judgment Techniques with Short-Range Predictions and Almanac Questions

Abstract

An experiment designed to discover whether the results of laboratory studies dealing with general (almanac) information are relevant to the applied case when the true answer is unknown. Using short-range prediction questions as subject matter, the experiment indicates that, in general, Delphi procedures are at least as effective with short-range prediction as they have been for almanac material. Eight groups, of about 20 each, of upperclassmen and college graduates were given short-range prediction questions to answer in a 2-round Delphi exercise. Satisfactory answers were obtained for 32 of the 40 questions. Correlations between standard deviation and accuracy, and between group self- rating and accuracy, were significantly higher for the prediction than for the almanac questions. Half the groups generated estimates of the 3 quartiles of the distribution; the other half generated point estimates. No significant difference was observed between these two kinds of estimates.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1971
Accession Number
AD0728741

Entities

People

  • Bernice Brown
  • Norman Dalkey

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Human Systems
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Acquisition
  • Aircrafts
  • Arms Control
  • Asia
  • California
  • Civil Defense
  • Communication Systems
  • Delphi Method
  • Middle East
  • Probability Distributions
  • Security
  • Southeast Asia
  • Standards
  • Students
  • Universities
  • Vehicles

Readers

  • Approximation Theory.
  • Instructional Design and Training Evaluation.
  • Systems Analysis and Design