Expert Opinion about Uncertainty

Abstract

The paper reviews decision theoretic approaches to the use of experts' verbal estimates of the probabilities of events in military decision making, weather forecasting, and medical diagnosis. The basic concept is Bayes' Theorem, and scoring rules and the data on verbal estimates are reviewed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 1971
Accession Number
AD0729069

Entities

People

  • Barbara Ann Heinrich

Organizations

  • University of Washington

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Applied Mathematics
  • Computers
  • Delphi Method
  • Endocrine Glands
  • Information Processing
  • Information Systems
  • Medical Personnel
  • Meteorology
  • Physicians
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Psychology
  • Students
  • Thyroid Diseases
  • Weather Forecasting
  • X Rays

Readers

  • Instructional Design and Training Evaluation.
  • Statistical inference.