One- and Two-Stage Models for Comparing an Experimental Treatment with a Standard.
Abstract
Optimal one- and two-stage plans are developed for selecting one of two medical treatments, an experimental treatment A or a standard treatment B. The response to treatment is normally distributed with unknwon mean mu sub A or mu sub B and known variance sigma squared. It is assumed mu sub A > or = mu sub B but that treatment A is worthwhile adopting only if mu sub A - mu sub B > or = a, where a is fixed. The only cost considered is the ethical one of treating a patient with the 'wrong' treatment. Out of a total of N patients with the disease in question, a fraction 2P of them is to be placed in a clinical trial comparing the two treatments, with the 'winning' treatment to be given to the remaining N(1-2P) patients. Optimal values of P are found for both a one-stage and a two-stage plan, with the latter showing a modest improvement in expected net gain. The case in which mu sub B is known is also considered, and the resultant improvement in expected net gain over the case mu sub B unknown is found to moderate for a one-stage trial. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 08, 1971
- Accession Number
- AD0731397
Entities
People
- Allan P. Donner
Organizations
- Harvard University