Theory of Deterrence and Dissuasion

Abstract

A theory is developed within the wider probabilistic theory of international nuclear stability to establish the probabilities of various types of nuclear missile wars between two opponents as functions of damage and certain psycho-political parameters. The report is concerned with a spontaneous belligerency function of the two opponents. A theory is presented which generates the probability that either power will attack spontaneously as a function of appropriate damages and four psycho-political parameters, viz., the aggressiveness parameters and the standards of damage of both powers. It is always endeavored to derive the probabilities logically from certain clearly exposed principles which form the postulatory basis for the theory.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 01, 1971
Accession Number
AD0734772

Entities

People

  • Bruno J. Manz

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Air Force
  • Air Force Facilities
  • Classification
  • Coefficients
  • Deterrence
  • Equations
  • Estimators
  • Governments
  • Motivation
  • New Mexico
  • Nomenclature
  • President (United States)
  • Probability
  • Security
  • Standards
  • Two Dimensional

Readers

  • Nuclear and Radiation Engineering.
  • Strategic Security Studies
  • Theoretical Analysis.