Retail Material Leadtime Variations and Safety Level,

Abstract

Two questions to leadtime forecasting are examined. First, should a leadtime variance be forecasted and employed in the computation of safety levels for items managed through use of the VOSL (Variable Operating and Safety Level) model. Second, is a monthly update period optimal for forecasting leadtimes. Comparisons of the various policies tested are made by simulating a stock a stock point inventory over a five year period. Based upon the simulation statistics, there appears to be minimal gain in incorporating a leadtime variance element in the safety level computation. The main reasons for this are the relatively low average leadtime (less than 2 months) and small leadtime variance (less than 0.5 month) for retail material. The simulation runs also indicated that the monthly and quarterly updates of leadtimes employed at Navy stock points are equally reliable and are at least as effective as any other update time period tested. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 23, 1971
Accession Number
AD0735894

Entities

People

  • M. J. Rorke

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Computations
  • Data Science
  • Delphi Method
  • Information Science
  • Inventory
  • Materials
  • Mathematics
  • Simulations
  • Statistics

Readers

  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
  • Regression Analysis.