A Finite Markov Chain Model of the Combat Process

Abstract

A generalized combat process is structured as a regular finite Markov chain with states reflecting the control, maneuver, target acquisition, and target destruction actions of a weapons system. The mean and variance of the first passage times to certain states and the limiting distribution of the amount of time that the process remains in a given state are suggested as being useful measures of the effectiveness of a weapons system. Some statistical techniques for estimating the one-step transition probabilities are given, and methods for modeling deterministic and stochastic action times, i.e., the amount of time that the process remains in a given state are presented. It is also shown that the reciprocal of an element of the mean first passage time matrix of the Markov chain model of the generalized combat process can be defined as the Lanchester attrition coefficient for a square law combat process. The usefulness of this contribution to the Lanchester theory of combat is discussed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1971
Accession Number
AD0736113

Entities

People

  • Thomas F. Reese

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Algorithms
  • Combat Operations
  • Equations
  • Geographic Regions
  • Markov Chains
  • Markov Processes
  • Mathematical Models
  • Measures Of Effectiveness
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Target Acquisition
  • Test And Evaluation
  • United States

Fields of Study

  • Engineering
  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Joint Military Operations and Doctrine.
  • Statistical inference.