Production Lead Time Forecasting

Abstract

The report describes a study of estimation procedures for the production lead time required in procurement of secondary items. The accuracy of production lead time forecasting is particularly important in the computation of variable safety levels. The study covers analysis of the performance of the present method for estimating lead times and an attempt to formulate improved methodology based on relationships existing between lead times and variables readily available to the item manager. It was found that the present methodology results in considerable forecast error. Stepwise regression was then used to develop modifications to the present methodology that gave better forecasts, but significant forecast error remains.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1972
Accession Number
AD0736848

Entities

People

  • Laurence Wheelock

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Computations
  • Computer Programs
  • Contracts
  • Data Analysis
  • Databases
  • Delphi Method
  • Errors
  • Information Science
  • Inventory
  • Lead Time
  • Logistics
  • Logistics Management
  • Procurement
  • Regression Analysis
  • Statistical Analysis
  • United States

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Industrial Economics