Frequent Misconceptions from the Use of Confidence Statements as the Lone Consideration in Reliability Requirements

Abstract

The report presents a discussion of the disadvantages of the use of such phrasing as 'the system must demonstrate 95 percent reliability with 90 percent confidence' when the required reliability for the system is 95 percent. Several examples are offered to illustrate how such wording can be misleading. A brief summary of elementary estimation theory is presented. The recommendation is given that such phrases as 95 percent reliability with 90 percent confidence be stricken from all Army documents.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 1971
Accession Number
AD0737196

Entities

People

  • Nancy R. Rich
  • Raymond H. Myers

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Binomials
  • Classification
  • Confidence Limits
  • Demography
  • Engineering
  • Estimators
  • Intervals
  • Normal Distribution
  • Observation
  • Probability
  • Radar
  • Random Variables
  • Reliability
  • Security
  • Statistics
  • Virginia
  • Weapon Systems

Readers

  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
  • Systems Analysis and Design