A Method for Predicting the Total Number of Parts Required to Rebuild a Given Lot of End Items,
Abstract
The paper presents a prediction procedure by which the total number of parts needed to rebuild a specific lot of items can be forecast. The procedure uses exponential smoothing to weight the historical and incoming data in order to obtain a new estimate of the lot percent defective. The binomial distribution is used to find the probability of using a specific number of parts in rebuild of the items. The final decision as to the total number of parts to order for rebuild is optimized by use of a total cost equation, which includes costs of overforecasting as well as underforecasting the required number of parts. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 1969
- Accession Number
- AD0738959
Entities
People
- Lonnie F. Wright
Organizations
- United States Army Materiel Command