Forecasting the Motion of Northeastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones.
Abstract
Several operational methods of forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones over the northeast Pacific Ocean area are evaluated for three 1970 and nine 1971 hurricanes. OFFICIAL forecast accuracy is shown to excel that of TYRACK (1971 only) and HATRACK (both years). The MODIFIED HATRACK (MODHATR) forecast scheme developed by the Navy in Monterey, California, comprising a numerical steering component (HATRACK) with a statistical modification (correction for bias in HATRACK) is applied to the same 1970-71 operational data, with the result that the MODHATR accuracy, using 850 mb steering, is shown to be superior to HATRACK and TYRACK while only slightly inferior to the OFFICIAL forecasts. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1972
- Accession Number
- AD0743763
Entities
People
- David Lansing Freeman
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School