Analysis of Risk for the Materiel Acquisition Process. Part II. Utility Theory

Abstract

The paper is devoted to the subject of analysis of risk for the materiel acquisition process. It is emphasized that risk analysis must interface with decision analysis to facilitate decision-making for major developmental programs. A concise discussion of utility theory, lotteries, and techniques to elicit utility functions is presented, as well as a set of utility axioms. The concepts are used for the decision analysis of a hypothetical example.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1971
Accession Number
AD0747365

Entities

People

  • John D. Hwang

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Costs
  • Cycles
  • Data Science
  • Decision Theory
  • Engineering
  • Information Science
  • Life Cycle Costs
  • Life Cycles
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Risk Analysis
  • Statistical Decision Theory
  • Statistics
  • Systems Analysis
  • Systems Science
  • Uncertainty

Readers

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Business Analytics
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management