Methods for Applying a Tracking Signal to Monitor Single Exponential Smoothing Forecast

Abstract

The tracking signal developed by Trigg which has gained wide acceptance is useful for monitoring single exponential smoothing forecasts. If forecasts become biased, the tracking signal will increase in absolute value indicating the possible need to change the smoothing constant which is the one adjustable parameter in single exponential smoothing. Two methods of applying the tracking signal to monitor exponential smoothing forecasts are discussed in the document. The method which was applied to depot workload forecasts is described in detail and the tables of confidence limits which are necessary to apply this method are given.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 01, 1972
Accession Number
AD0749260

Entities

People

  • Michael R. Chernick

Organizations

  • United States Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Army Aviation
  • Classification
  • Confidence Limits
  • Delphi Method
  • Interdisciplinary Science
  • Logistics Management
  • Maryland
  • Mathematics
  • Monitoring
  • New Jersey
  • Normal Distribution
  • Operations Research
  • Plastic Explosives
  • Random Number Generators
  • Security
  • Systems Analysis
  • Workload

Readers

  • Approximation Theory.
  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
  • Sensor Fusion and Tracking Systems.