Judgments of Probability and Utility for Decision Making

Abstract

This is a report of psychological research on decision analysis. The experimental research developed and tested procedures for eliciting assessments of probability and utility as inputs to decision analyses. One experiment on probability assessment with a known data-generating process evaluated scales and feedback as aids to the use of Bayes's theorem for revising probabilities in the light of new information. The other one evaluated the effectiveness of a scoring-rule test designed to calibrate probability assessors. There were several experiments on multi-attribute utility assessment. On-line research tested these procedures on naval problems.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1972
Accession Number
AD0751561

Entities

People

  • Cameron R. Peterson

Organizations

  • University of Michigan

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Applied Psychology
  • Behavioral Sciences
  • Biological Sciences
  • Books
  • Contracts
  • Decision Theory
  • Engineering
  • False Alarms
  • Handbooks
  • Human Factors Engineering
  • Human-Machine Systems
  • Military Research
  • Naval Operations
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Psychology
  • Water Quality

Fields of Study

  • Psychology

Readers

  • Statistical inference.
  • Systems Analysis and Design
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.