A Preliminary Model for Retirement Forecasting.

Abstract

A probabilistic model was devised that constructs a profile of the possible retirements that can be expected within a specified interval of time. Retirement distributions were found to be multimodal for optional retirements. The introduction of a cost of living bonus during a time interval tends to cause additional retirements to occur between the first and second modes of the optional distributions. Discontinued Service retirements occur most often when the candidate is between 1-2 years before optional retirement eligibility. This model is useful in showing that mathematical profiles of retirees can be constructed and is the beginning effort toward developing more sophisticated techniques aimed at this goal. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 1972
Accession Number
AD0755725

Entities

People

  • Kathleen A. Medvec

Organizations

  • Naval Undersea Warfare Center

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Collaborative Techniques
  • Delphi Method
  • Intervals
  • Models
  • Probabilistic Models
  • Time Intervals

Readers

  • Government and Public Administration Law.
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Mathematics or Statistics