Policy and the Study of the Future: Given Complexity, Trends or Processes,

Abstract

At an early stage in the study of the future and policy making, a number of important methodological choices face social scientists. One important choice concerns the relative utility of forecasting by extrapolating trends or by using process models. The former is more familiar, while the latter is appears more promising. After introduction of a few essential concepts in the formal study of political systems using process model, the effect of complexity on the analytical tractability of the system is noted. Consequent implications for the scientific study of policy are sketched.

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 01, 1972
Accession Number
AD0760603

Entities

People

  • Garry D. Brewer
  • Ronald D. Brunner

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Collaborative Techniques
  • Delphi Method
  • Malleability
  • Management Engineering
  • Political Systems
  • Scientists

Readers

  • Systems Analysis and Design
  • Theoretical Analysis.