International Interaction Analysis in the Predictive Mode.
Abstract
A review of the important limitations on scientific prediction systems as the latter related to high-level decision-makers and their problems in external affairs is placed in contrast to a description of the compatibility of predictive analysis and policy planning operations. Reference is made to the writer's earlier analysis for the Air Force's Office of Research Analysis (OAR) of scientific prediction rules applicable to the making of improved estimates of psychological and political international futures. The earlier observations are extended and applied to international interaction analysis problems when the approach is directed to prediction. The plan for conducting periodic prediction exercises using the data collection of the world event survey is described..
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1969
- Accession Number
- AD0761233
Entities
People
- Charles A. Mccleland
Organizations
- University of Southern California