Modeling and Forecasting Populations by Time Series: The Swedish Case,

Abstract

Time series analysis technique is used to model and forecast populations. An autoregressive (AR) and a moving average (MA) model are found which seems to fit the population of Sweden very well. Forecasts are calculated using both models, and it turns out that the AR and MA forecasts for 1965 and 1970 are better than the usual ones, which assume constant age-specific birth and death rates and no migration. Forecasts for 1975 and 1980 are also calculated. The technique is very general and, although this study is confined to Sweden, it can be used for other populations. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1973
Accession Number
AD0761661

Entities

People

  • Joao Saboia

Organizations

  • University of California, Berkeley

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Collaborative Techniques
  • Delphi Method
  • Migration
  • Time Series Analysis

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

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  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
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