Development and Application of an Analog Scheme for Predicting the Intensification of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones.
Abstract
Various meteorological parameters were examined to determine their predictive value for forecasting intensity changes of Western North Pacific tropical cyclones using an analog forecast scheme. A number of procedures were devised to quantitatively define the forecast potentials of these parameters in a systematic method. Based on the results of these procedures, predictors for the 24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour forecast periods were defined. To evaluate the skill of the predictors and the procedures used to define them, an analog intensification forecast scheme was developed and applied to a number of test cyclones. (Modified author abstract)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1973
- Accession Number
- AD0761726
Entities
People
- Kent William Foster
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School