Automated Probability Forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility Based on Single-Station Data

Abstract

A set of computer programs was developed to produce multiple linear regression equations for predicting the probability of specified ceiling and visibility categories at air terminals. The equations were based upon weather observations made solely at the terminal and were derived with the REEP screening technique from 329 possible predictors. The program(s) accepted raw data in a standard National Climatic Center format, and a complete set of prediction equations for five time projections was produced for each of 50 stations in a single computer run. The accuracy of forecasts generated by the equations was evaluated for 20 terminals. Three measures of accuracy were used to compare the objective forecasts to persistence and climatology. Computer programs were developed to prepare forecasts on an operational basis for 20 terminals in the eastern U.S. and 23 terminals in Alaska.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 01, 1973
Accession Number
AD0762461

Entities

People

  • Frank Lewis
  • Richard L. Crisci

Organizations

  • National Weather Service

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Barter Island
  • Climatology
  • Cloud Cover
  • Clouds
  • Coefficients
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Data Processing
  • Databases
  • Dew Point
  • Equations
  • New York
  • Sea Level
  • Standards
  • Weather
  • Wind Direction

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Regression Analysis.