Risk Assessment.
Abstract
Risk assessment became an integral part of the DOD system acquisition process in 1969. The primary effort of the paper was directed at exploring past attempts to quantify risk, and while the qualitative measurement of risk is mentioned, it is not explored in any depth. An attempt is made to define or describe the manner in which risk analysis varies throughout the system acquisition life cycle and a methodology using Bayes' Theorem is presented for the quantification and updating of risk in an on-going program. The methods of estimating parameters and their usefulness in a formal analytical process are discussed. The probability density function best transmits the uncertainty associated with an estimate and lends itself more readily to the analytical techniques than other methods of estimation. (Modified author abstract)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1973
- Accession Number
- AD0767871
Entities
People
- Hamilton T. Lenox
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology