International Conflict as a Central Environmental Description in a Long- Range Forecasting Model
Abstract
International conflict is defined as negative interactions between nations, that is, hostile actions taken by one nation toward another nation. Those interactions include a continuum of conflict types ranging from verbal accusations to military action. Thus international conflict is not restricted to military encounters. The index of conflict that has been developed is intended to indicate the proportion of conflictual interaction within nation pairs of dyads. The index attempts to place conflict interaction is perspective by accounting for both positive and negative interaction between nations. The regression model that will be used to forecast international conflict contains five exogenous (externally determined) and four endogenous (internally determined) predictors. Exogenous predictors include geographic proximity/ contiguity, number of treaties, defense as a percent of GNP, social distance, and level of interaction. Endogenous predictors are previous levels of conflict between dyad members, military power base, alignment, and internal instability.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 01, 1973
- Accession Number
- AD0767952
Entities
People
- Larry German
- Robert Escavich