An Analysis of Current Navy Procedures for Forecasting Demand with an Investigation of Possible Alternative Techniques.
Abstract
An analysis is made of current Navy procedures for assigning a probability density function to demand and the technique(s) used to forecast the parameter(s) of the particular density function chosen. The gamma density function is investigated as a possible replacement for the three density functions currently being used. A comparison of the gamma and normal density functions is made with regards to inventory costs, observed protection levels, and unit effectiveness. Additionally, a comparison is made, through a simple simulation model, of demand patterns generated by demand reporting as it is done today and consumption data reporting as it might be done in the future. The intent of the simulation is to provide some insight into the impact the demand reporting method might have on the variance of demand. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1973
- Accession Number
- AD0769432
Entities
People
- Edward Joseph Shields
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School