Forecasting the Size Distribution of a Population of Savings Account: A Markovian Approach.
Abstract
The Markov chain model, with extensions to cover the phenomena of arrivals and departures, was applied to a population of savings accounts, in a savings institution, to forecast the size distribution, total number of accounts and total amount of savings of the population. The stochastic processes governing the behavior of the population were first assumed to be time stationary. This assumption was then relaxed and an econometric model was used to predict future values of the parameters of the nonstationary model. Both models were validated by comparing predicted size distributions, total number of accounts and total amount of savings against observed values. The fundamental matrix of the stationary model was also used to predict the equilibrium distribution and related measures of the population. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1973
- Accession Number
- AD0769830
Entities
People
- Lui Pao Chuen
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School