Relative Variance Preferences in a Choice-Among-Bets Paradigm

Abstract

The validity of the prime assumption of proper scoring rules (PSR), that people maximize subjective expected value (SEV), was tested in the case where SEV was assumed to equal EV. A choice-among-bets paradigm was used in which the lists of bets conformed to the requirements of a PSR. Both real and hypothetical payoff conditions were used, and in addition, EV, variance, and odds of the gambles were systematically varied. The use of list of bets generated by a PSR as a response mode for inferring subjective probabilities is questioned because of the weakness of the SEV maximization assumption in this context.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 02, 1973
Accession Number
AD0770187

Entities

People

  • Barbara C. Goodman
  • Dennis G. Fryback
  • Raymond C. Seghers

Organizations

  • University of Michigan

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Analysis Of Variance
  • Consistency
  • Contracts
  • Data Analysis
  • Data Science
  • Engineering
  • Health Services
  • Human Factors Engineering
  • Information Processing
  • Information Science
  • Michigan
  • Military Research
  • Probability
  • Psychology
  • Public Health
  • Standards
  • Universities

Fields of Study

  • Psychology

Readers

  • Aerial Delivery - Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference