Primacy, Conservatism, and Complexity in Bayesian Information Processing.
Abstract
Past research in Bayesian information processing has found consistent effects for primacy and conservatism. The present experiment attempted to replicate these findings and to investigate two additional hypotheses; that primacy counteracts conservatism, and that an increase in the complexity of the information inhibits good information processing. Four independent variables were manipulated in a bank loan setting formulated by Moskowitz (1971). Diagnosticity of the information presented, the order of good and bad information, and two complexity variables concerned with the actual information presented were varied for each of the three loan applicants each subject reviewed. The sequential probability estimates of the subjects were compared to the predictions of Bayes' theorem. (Modified author abstract)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 1973
- Accession Number
- AD0771371
Entities
People
- John K. Murnighan
- Yong H. Sung
Organizations
- Purdue University