Forecasting Transportation Tonnage by an Adaptive Smoothing Model
Abstract
The paper describes a research project which was designed to investigate the feasibility of using mathematical models to forecast cargo air shipments. Seven mathematical models were evaluated. In a two phase research effort, actual movement through eight routes over forty-one months was first evaluated according to six different criteria for six forecasting models. Parameters were varied for the models to approach optimality. Using results from the first phase, three models were re-evaluated through thirty-nine routes for thirty-six months each. An adaptive exponential model was identified as being most suitable for the contemplated usage.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1973
- Accession Number
- AD0776823
Entities
People
- Francis E. James Jr.
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology