An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting

Abstract

The report describes an experiment in forecasting economic, political, and military events, expressing uncertainty with explicit probabilities. The subjects were 31 UCLA summer students: 16 graduate students, 14 upper classmen, and one freshman, of both sexes, ages ranging from 28 to 41, with a wide variety of majors. The questions, asked in July 1970, called for forecasts of December 1970 quantities. Results were scored when the factual outcomes were known.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1973
Accession Number
AD0777061

Entities

People

  • Thomas A. Brown

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Biomedical
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • California
  • Commerce
  • Consumers
  • Databases
  • Governments
  • Military Advisors
  • Military Personnel
  • Normal Distribution
  • Price Index
  • Probability
  • Probability Density Functions
  • Probability Distributions
  • Southeast Asia
  • Standards
  • Students
  • United States
  • Vietnam

Readers

  • Business Analytics
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • STEM Education