Quantifying Uncertainty Into Numerical Probabilities for the Reporting of Intelligence

Abstract

Within intelligence systems, it is important to assess the probability that certain events will occur and to determine the reliability of information on them. Any degree of uncertainty over these events or the information can be quantified into numerical probabilities, which can then be readily and accurately communicated within the system. Four advantages which stem from using numerical probabilities are discussed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 1973
Accession Number
AD0777063

Entities

People

  • Emir H. Shuford
  • Thomas A. Brown

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Ballistic Missiles
  • Commerce
  • Education
  • Information Theory
  • Intelligence Analysts
  • Intelligence Community
  • Military Personnel
  • Minority Groups
  • Motivation
  • Personnel Management
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Students
  • Test And Evaluation
  • Training
  • Weather Forecasting

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Geospatial Intelligence and Artificial Intelligence Analytics