Adaptive Computer Aiding in Dynamic Decision Processes: Part II. Scenario Generation by Elicited Expert Probabilities.
Abstract
The report describes the implementation of a system for adaptive computer aiding in dynamic decision processes and provides theoretical background for some of the underlying techniques. The report is presented in two parts under separate covers. 'Scenario Generation by Elicited Expert Probabilities,' describes a unique technique for generating realistic dynamic decision environments. It covers the following topics: (1) a review of requirements for and techniques of generating scenarious; (2) a description of the elicited expert probability approach; (3) a description of the system for generating fishing fleet scenarios and the associated hardware and software. The report was prepared as part of a long term program directed toward the application of adaptive computer techniques for aiding the decision maker and toward the experimental investigation of the factors which influence optimal decision aiding in complex, realistic, intelligence-gathering tasks. (Modified author abstract)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 1974
- Accession Number
- AD0780246
Entities
People
- Amos Freedy
- Donald May
- Gershon Weltman
- Richard Weisbrod