Numerical Encoding of Qualitative Expressions of Uncertainty
Abstract
Judgment of the probable accuracy of intelligence data and products is held as integral to the intelligence rating process. Accurate communication of the probability of uncertainty implicit in such judgment is requisite to the effective production and utilization of intelligence. Twenty-eight subjects, 14 U. S. Army enlisted men and 14 extension college students, numerically encoded on a 0 to 100 scale each of 15 probability phrases in each of three sentence contexts. Subjects were relatively consistent in their own encoding of given phrases, but differed, often radically, from other subjects. Cluster analysis of the numbers assigned by subjects indicated an underlying asymmetric probability scale comprised of a small number of intervals.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1973
- Accession Number
- AD0780814
Entities
People
- Edgar M. Johnson
Organizations
- U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences