'I Knew It Would Happen' -- Remembered Probabilities of Once-Future Things
Abstract
Judges who had estimated the likelihood of various possible outcomes of President Nixon's trips to Peking and Moscow were unexpectedly asked to remember, or reconstruct in the event that they had forgotten, their own predictions some time after the visits were completed. In addition, they indicated whether or not they thought that each event had in fact occurred. Remembered-reconstructed probabilities are discussed. In their original predictions, subjects appear to have overestimated low probabilities and underestimated high probabilities, although they were generally accurate. Judging by their reconstructed-remembered probabilities, however, subjects seldom perceived having been very surprised by what had or had not happened. These results are discussed in terms of cognitive 'anchoring' and possible detrimental effects of outcome-feedback. (Modified author abstract)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 1974
- Accession Number
- AD0780971
Entities
People
- Baruch Fischhoff
- Ruth Beyth
Organizations
- Oregon Research Institute