The Effect of Data Source Reliability on Intuitive Inference

Abstract

As part of a continuing effort to provide research information which will facilitate improved intelligence information processing, a study was made of man's processing and utilization of unreliable data. Reports from data sources of given reliability and diagnosticity were presented to 22 subjects in a series of two-hypothesis decision problems. On each problem, each subject indicated the most likely of the two hypotheses and the subjective odds favoring that hypothesis. In most cases, as reliability decreased, subjective odds increased relative to Bayesian odds.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 1974
Accession Number
AD0784097

Entities

People

  • Edgar M. Johnson

Organizations

  • U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Army Intelligence
  • Bayesian Inference
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Computers
  • Data Analysis
  • Data Science
  • Experimental Design
  • Information Processing
  • Information Science
  • Information Systems
  • Military Research
  • Models
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Psychology
  • Security
  • Social Sciences

Fields of Study

  • Psychology

Readers

  • Regression Analysis.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.
  • Theoretical Analysis.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference