A Cost Growth Model for Weapon System Development Programs.

Abstract

Much attention has been placed on cost growth in military weapon system acquisitions. The reasons for cost growth can be related to uncertainty relative to program costs, delivery dates and product reliability. A conceptual model has been developed to cope with the uncertainties in weapons acquisition programs. The model relates the concepts of entropy, information, uncertainty and costs, predicting final costs based on a measure of uncertainty, synonymous with risk in this study. The measure of uncertainty is entropy, or the lack of order in the information available to the program manager. The model expresses final costs as the ratio of initial cost estimates to program entropy. The authors develop and refine the model for application to weapon development programs. (Modified author abstract)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 14, 1974
Accession Number
AD0785438

Entities

People

  • John O. Lenz
  • Willaim L. Glover

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Cost Estimates
  • Costs
  • Uncertainty
  • Weapon Systems
  • Weapons

Readers

  • Civilian Systems Systems Program Capability Development and Upgrade Support Activity Expense and Pay Management.
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Theoretical Analysis.