Multiperiod Adaptive Control of the Wellhead Price of Natural Gas: A Bayesian Decision Theoretic Approach.
Abstract
This dissertation provides a methodology for the multiperiod adaptive control of one or more policy variables belonging to a system of linear simultaneous equations by Bayesian methods. The methodology is developed in the context of a specific problem, the dynamic regulation of the wellhead price of natural gas. A mathematical model is first formulated which can probabilistically predict the magnitude of the additions to natural gas reserves and the supply of produced gas due to new contracts for specified values of the wellhead price of natural gas in each range of values assumed by these three variables. Based on the criterion of maximizing expected utility a sequential N-period optimal pricing strategy is then evaluated. (Modified author abstract)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 01, 1974
- Accession Number
- AD0786686
Entities
People
- Cyrus R. Mehta
Organizations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology