PREDICTION ACCURACY FOR A LEAST-SQUARES ANALYSIS,
Abstract
In many weapon effectiveness analyses involving a fire control prediction of a future position, an 'end point' prediction is assumed because of the simplicity of calculation. In the end point case, two observations of target position are used. A straight target course through these points is extrapolated beyond the second observation for an appropriate time to reach the weapon 'aim point'. The two observations are subject to error, and hence the aim point is subject to a related error which can be calculated from the observation errors. This report gives a generalization of the end-point analysis to a prediction based on any number, n, of observations. Instead of constructing the estimated target course through the two end-points, a straight line course is fitted to all n points by a least-squares procedure. The resulting formula for error in aim point is nearly as simple as for the end-point case, and would be entirely feasible to use in practical calculations in effectiveness studies. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 01, 1962
- Accession Number
- AD0803049
Entities
People
- Margaret R. Perry
- Shigeru Ishii