ACCURACY IN LAUNCH VEHICLE COST ANALYSIS.
Abstract
This report presents a summary of an initial phase of a long term study to develop techniques for accurately predicting launch vehicle costs. It is directed toward the cost estimating problem involved in conceptual phase planning of future orbital transportation systems. It is an initial part of a larger research project to develop a computer program cost model for long range planning. Included in this report are descriptions of several aspects of launch vehicle cost models. A survey of the current state of the art in launch vehicle cost estimating techniques is briefly described. Also included is a brief description of the Aerospace Corporation launch vehicle cost model currently under development. The emphasis of this report is on the accuracy or confidence associated with cost estimates calculated by industry launch vehicle cost models. Results are shown of a statistical analysis of the mean and standard deviation of sample model estimates for various cost elements of a liquid and solid launch vehicle program. This sample was obtained with the assistance of several industrial contractors. The variations in the cost estimates are discussed. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 1967
- Accession Number
- AD0815626
Entities
People
- E. C. Bradley
- J. G. Fish
- M. C. Heuston
Organizations
- The Aerospace Corporation