TROPICAL STORM STEERING USING GEOSTROPHIC WINDS DERIVED FROM SMOOTHED 700-MB AND 500-MB HEIGHT FIELDS.
Abstract
A numerical method for predicting the movement of tropical storms has been developed utilizing smoothed 700-mb (Atlantic area) and 500-mb (Pacific area) height fields as produced by the Fleet Numerical Weather Facility, Monterey, California. Geostrophic steering components are computed from the contour analyses at or near forecast time for predicting storm positions up to 72 hours. Recent-history vector forecast errors are employed as corrections to improve the basic steering forecast for periods up to 36 hours. Testing of storms from 15 August to 1 November 1965 in both Atlantic and Pacific regions indicates the method is comparable in accuracy to official forecasts as published by Fleet Weather Central/Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam, and Fleet Weather Facility, Jacksonville, Florida, as well as to Atlantic-area forecasts made with the NHC-64 statistical approach for periods up to 48 hours. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1967
- Accession Number
- AD0819552
Entities
People
- James Stewart Hardie
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School