INVESTIGATION OF A BAYESIAN APPROACH APPLIED TO A SPECIFIC INTELLIGENCE PROBLEM,
Abstract
Although it appears theoretically possible that many problems of intelligence could be profitably attacked by a Bayesian approach, several difficulties must be overcome before such an approach can be used as an operational tool. Because test applications of a Bayesian approach to real problems of intelligence offer insight into the areas of difficulty, a specific previously 'solved' intelligence problem was explored with the aid of a cooperating intelligence analyst who used a Bayesian approach. This report discusses the salient aspects of the intelligence problem area, the specific difficulties encountered in the implementation of a Bayesian approach, and the techniques used to eliminate or diminish these difficulties. In addition, the solutions obtained with and without the aid of a Bayesian model are compared and causes of discrepancies are postulated. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1968
- Accession Number
- AD0839284
Entities
People
- Dennis E. Smith
- Grace H. Wright
- Peter T. Luckie
Organizations
- HRB Systems