Decision Strategies in R/D Projects.
Abstract
The manager of a development project plans the menu of included activities to provide timely information for decisions which must be made during the project and to achieve effective use of resources in bringing about direct progress toward the desired outcome. The project must be conducted to effect a reduction of uncertainty and risk of costly commitment to inappropriate approaches while avoiding the consequences of undue deliberation. The strategy which a manager follows in making these choices is influenced by the nature of uncertainty faced in a given situation and the actions which may be taken to reduce this uncertainty--the effectiveness of possible choices in terms of the rate of learning, as it were. This report addresses the manager's problem of choosing an effective strategy. It reports results from an empirical study of strategy choices and outcomes in one Government laboratory during a fifteen year time period. Strategy choice possibilities and considerations associated with their effectiveness are discussed. Considerations effecting strategy choice include the nature of uncertainty encountered in a given problem and the effect of choices on the rate of learning. Contrary to observations in other studies, the present results suggest that the rate of learning is slow in the traditional R and D cycle. In many instances major uncertainties are not reduced until the product is evaluated in the operational environment. Several implications for the manager are discussed. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 01, 1969
- Accession Number
- AD0859783
Entities
People
- William J. Abernathy
Organizations
- University of California, Los Angeles