The Pure Birth Process Applied to Navy Aircraft Accidents

Abstract

Non-combat aircraft accident statistics indicate that a direct relationship exists between the number of accidents and accumulated flight hours or similarly between the accident rate and accumulated flight hours for each model of military airplane. This paper investigates the feasibility of relating accident rates directly to the total number of past accidents. Based on the pure birth process a method for predicting aircraft accidents is presented. Application of this procedure to various test cases shows interesting and useful conclusions that can be drawn.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 1969
Accession Number
AD0860893

Entities

People

  • Diane E. Trobaugh

Organizations

  • Naval Air Systems Command

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Aircrafts
  • Attrition
  • Aviation Accidents
  • Classification
  • Computer Programs
  • Differential Equations
  • Equations
  • Markov Processes
  • Naval Aviation
  • Navy
  • Navy Aircraft
  • Probabilistic Models
  • Probability
  • Random Variables
  • Statistics
  • Stochastic Processes

Readers

  • Aviation Safety Risk Assessment.
  • Mathematical Modeling and Probability Theory.
  • Theoretical Analysis.