Probabilistic Manpower Planning for the Research and Development Organization
Abstract
There is an existing need for development of techniques for solving inventory problems when the parameters can be specified only in a probabilistic sense. Such a technique was developed in this study which utilized both linear and dynamic programming to operate on the probabilistic data. The problem addressed was manpower for a research and development organization which bids competitively for research and development tasks; however, the technique developed is applicable as well to machines, materials, or any other type of inventory. Probabilistic planning is visualized as a process for continually and systematically evaluating the manpower requirements and recognizing the risks being taken with any given manpower plan. This author's approach to the manpower problem provides: (1) An array of all possible workloads, (2) The probability associated with each, (3) The minimum cost approach to performing each workload, (4) A corporate manpower plan which allows the corporation to adjust its manpower to the actual workload, when it occurs, with least regret. Mathematical models developed are suitable for solution on electronic computers and provide management with a rapid evaluation of possible management decisions. The corporation is thus provided with a mathematical simulation of the manpower planning system which can be utilized to readily evaluate effects of various inputs and promote better understanding of the problem at hand.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 05, 1969
- Accession Number
- AD0863283
Entities
People
- Larry H. Johnson