Theoretical and Empirical Predictions.
Abstract
The report describes the statistical tests of an operational theory of social change. It attempts to assess the theory's statistical consistency and potential for predicting the incidence of internal conflict behavior of various types. The major techniques used are factor analysis, stepwise multiple regression analysis, and certain correlational techniques. As a result of these tests, empirical modifications of the theory were suggested and undertaken, though the predictive power of the basic theory was well supported. The conclucions derived are still preliminary, but generally provide insights into the nature of the development process and support a predictive relationship between this process and internal conflict of various types which varies with the stage in the development process. Since the analyses were based on synchronic data and the results have implications for such activities as aid program, collection and analysis of time series information is strongly suggested as an extension of this effort. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 1970
- Accession Number
- AD0872812
Entities
People
- Eugene A. Erb Jr
- Gary L. Buck
- Manus I. Midlarsky