Alternative 1975-85 Political and Strategic Environments for Military Planners. Volume I.
Abstract
This is a study of the 1975-1985 political and strategic environment. This study explores some of the social, political, economic, and strategic factors that are likely to affect military planning in the 1975-1985 decade--and current planning focused on preparing for this decade. These factors include the likely distribution of various kinds of weapons systems, likely source of conflict and violence, the role and status of the principal allies and competitors of the United States and of certain other states with significant roles. Finally an attempt was made to provide both conjectures and deductions on the possible impacts of the above factors that might be of special interest to military planners. In doing such a study it is not attempted to predict the future, although of course it is hoped that some of the extrapolations and projections will in fact be reasonably accurate forecasts. But given the many uncertainties in the considerations, it would be substantially easier in many cases to pick the winner of a horse race than to pick the particular future which will materialize. In a sense, one of the major purposes of this study is to describe most of the important horses. They can be important because their probability of winning is high, or because there is a special interest in a particular participant (for example, one might be an owner or even a protagonist), or because the payoff if a particular horse comes in is important or spectacular, or indeed any appropriate combination of these or other important factors. The authors would also, of course, like to give some 'feel' or orientation as to what might be reasonable odds and 'payoffs.'
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 30, 1969
- Accession Number
- AD0879110