The Delphi Technique and ITS Applicability to Army Systems Analyses.

Abstract

Delphi is a normative technique for solving problems that involve uncertainty. It employs well-structured, objective procedures for the elicitation of expert judgment. This report presents a brief description of the Delphi technique and an orientation to its features and methods. It evaluates the research which has been done to validate Delphi, and discusses the problems associated with its application to Army systems analysis. Normative techniques are still an art and must be applied with caution. The analysts must be experienced and knowledgeable. These techniques should not replace analytical methods, but may be gainfully employed where uncertainty prevails and good judgment is necessary. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1972
Accession Number
AD0904407

Entities

People

  • Lambert J. Sebastiani

Organizations

  • United States Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Cognition
  • Interdisciplinary Science
  • Judgment
  • Mental Processes
  • Orientation (Direction)
  • Systems Analysis
  • Uncertainty

Readers

  • Systems Analysis and Design
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.