Conditional Belief Types

Abstract

We study type spaces where a players type at a state is a conditional probability on the space. We axiomatize these spaces using conditional belief operators, examining three additional axioms of increasing strength. First, introspection, which requires the agent to be unconditionally certain of her beliefs. Second, echo, according to which the unconditional beliefs implied by the condition must be held given the condition. Third, determination, which says that the conditional beliefs are the unconditional beliefs that are conditionally certain. Echo implies that conditioning on an event is the same as conditioning on the event being certain, which formalizes the standard informal interpretation of conditional probability. The game-theoretic application of our model, discussed within an example, sheds light on a number of issues in the analysis of extensive form games. Type spaces are closely related to the sphere models of counterfactual conditionals and to models of hypothetical knowledge.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 19, 2016
Accession Number
AD1001007

Entities

People

  • Alfredo Di Tillio
  • Dov Samet
  • Joseph Halpern

Organizations

  • Department of Computer Science, Cornell University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Contrast
  • Formal Languages
  • Game Theory
  • Guarantees
  • Hierarchies
  • Inclusions
  • Information Operations
  • Language
  • Markov Chains
  • Military Research
  • Normality
  • Numbers
  • Probability
  • Sequences
  • Standards
  • Theorems

Readers

  • Mathematical Modeling and Probability Theory.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.
  • Theoretical Analysis.

Technology Areas

  • Space