Predicting Cost Growth Using Programs Reviews and Milestones for DoD Aircraft

Abstract

Past research shows predicting cost growth is an important topic with DoD systems. Researchers have attempted to predict total program cost growth as well as identify predictors of program cost growth. Our research addresses this through examining cost growth at reviews and milestones along an aircrafts schedule. We assess cost growth factors at four major reviews, Critical Design Review, First Flight, Development Test and Evaluation End, and Initial Operating Capability.The first portion of the analysis focuses on identifying cost growth factors and percent of total cost growth at the four program reviews. The second portion identifies predictors of cost growth at the four reviews. In our results, we present a spike in procurement cost growth first occurring around First Flight and we identify the median percent of total cost growth at IOC, or 48 percent of program completion to be 91 . The second portion of the results identifies the three most common predictors of cost growth at program reviews: Bombers, Prototyping, and electronic aircraft system upgrades.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 24, 2016
Accession Number
AD1008484

Entities

People

  • Scott J Kozlak

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Biomedical
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Air Force
  • Aircrafts
  • Airframes
  • Bomber Aircraft
  • Cost Analysis
  • Cost Estimates
  • Department Of Defense
  • Electronic Aircraft
  • Growth Factors
  • Literature Surveys
  • Military Aircraft
  • Procurement
  • Regression Analysis
  • Space Systems
  • Test And Evaluation
  • War Colleges

Readers

  • Economics
  • Government Contracting/Procurement.
  • Naval Mine Countermeasure Systems Development.

Technology Areas

  • Microelectronics