General Multidecision Theory: Hypothesis Testing and Changepoint Detection with Applications to Homeland Security

Abstract

We have addressed all objectives planned in the proposal. First, we proved asymptotic optimality of the Generalized SLRT and the Adaptive SLRT for testing multiple composite hypotheses and very general non-iid stochastic models as the probabilities of errors become small. The results are indeed very general and include Markov, hidden Markov, state-space, and auto regression models as particular cases. Second, we developed computationally efficient and nearly optimal tests for detecting unstructured and structured patterns in multi-stream (sensor, channel) systems assuming that data between channels are mutually independent but may be of a very general non-iid structure in channels, and that the number of affected channels is unknown and may vary from small to large. Third, we developed a general Bayesian theory of quickest changepoint detection for general non-iid stochastic models assuming a certain stability of the log-likelihood ratio (LLR) process expressed via the r-complete convergence of the LLR to a finite and positive number which can be regarded as the KullbackLeibler information number. Fourth, we developed a similar minimax change detection theory modifying and relaxing previous results of Lai (1998) to complete convergence of the LLR and considering novel classes of detection procedures that confine local maximal conditional probability of a false alarm.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 19, 2016
Accession Number
AD1008619

Entities

People

  • Alexander G. Tartakovsky

Organizations

  • University of Connecticut

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Cyber
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Sensors

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Change Detection
  • Data Analysis
  • Detection
  • Detectors
  • Ergodic Processes
  • Homeland Security
  • Information Theory
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Scientists
  • Sequences
  • Sequential Analysis
  • Statistical Inference
  • Statistics
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Students

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Radio communications and signal processing.
  • Statistical inference.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference
  • AI & ML - Machine Learning Algorithms
  • Space
  • Space - Space Objects