Approximating the Probability of Mortality Due to Protracted Radiation Exposures

Abstract

Probability of fatality plots in HPAC for whole body exposure due to nuclear weapons frequently indicate a median lethal dose (LD50) much higher than the prompt dose value, even for acute exposures. This apparent paradox is discussed in this paper. We conclude that the values generated by HPAC are reasonable in the MARCELL model, which includes the effects of bone marrow cell damage, repair and death. Values of fallout age-at-entry and exposure duration encountered in HPAC calculations typically generate exposures having LD50 ranging from 600 to 700 cGy, instead of the prompt value of 410 cGy. We present approximate methods for estimating the probability of mortality due to radiological environments from nuclear weapon detonations or from a radiological dispersal device.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 2016
Accession Number
AD1010941

Entities

People

  • Darren Oldson
  • David Crary
  • Gene Mcclellan

Organizations

  • Applied Research Associates (United States)

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Bone Marrow
  • Bone Marrow Cells
  • Cells
  • Dose Rate
  • Equations
  • Ionizing Radiation
  • Lethal Dosage
  • Mathematical Models
  • Medical Personnel
  • Models
  • Nuclear Fallout
  • Nuclear Weapons
  • Radiation
  • Radiological Weapons
  • Spreadsheet Software
  • Stem Cells
  • Weapons

Readers

  • Nuclear and Radiation Engineering.
  • Regression Analysis.