Theoretical and Experimental Investigation of Opinion Dynamics in Small Social Networks
Abstract
This report describes research conducted under the subject grant on opinion dynamics in small networks and applications to terrorist networks and WMD decision making. Mathematical analysis and computational simulation were used to study the effects of network structure and nonlinearity on group discussion and decision making outcomes. Theoretical findings included a new route to extreme decisions based on a symmetry-breaking bifurcation; the capability of lower density networks to better reduce discord than higher density ones at high disagreement; and a novel nonlinear-based explanation of the primacy-recency effect. Online discussion experiments involving manipulations of network structure, disagreement level, and other variables were performed in order to investigate effects on consensus, group efficacy, and groupthink-related behavior. Chain networks were found to be capable of greater decision-making performance and less susceptible to group polarization toward extreme decisions than complete networks. A new theoretical explanation for the group polarization effect was developed to account for experimental results counter to the expectations of standard theories. Empirical modeling of terrorist groups and nuclear decision making by a foreign regime were conducted. An analytical framework for assessing the role of small group dynamics in disrupting terrorist groups was proposed.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 01, 2016
- Accession Number
- AD1011850
Entities
People
- Michael Gabbay
Organizations
- University of Washington