Development Risk Methodology for Whole Systems Trade Analysis

Abstract

PEO GCS requested AMSAA to conduct a verification and validation (V and V) of the Whole System Trade Analysis Tool (WSTAT). In the early stages of the V and V for development risk, it was discovered that the original risk rating and methodology did not actually represent development risk, because consequences were not considered (only likelihood). As a result, an appropriate development risk methodology needed to be created for the intended WSTAT applications. In addition to incorporating consequence into the risk methodology, AMSAA created a methodology for the technology distributions, considered criticality of technologies, developed a closed form algorithm, and created a risk rating approach. The purpose of this report is to document how development risk was created for WSTAT.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 01, 2016
Accession Number
AD1015490

Entities

People

  • John Nierwinski

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Algorithms
  • Basic Programming Language
  • Department Of Defense
  • Genetic Algorithms
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Ratings
  • Risk
  • Risk Analysis
  • Simulations
  • Systems Analysis
  • Validation
  • Verification
  • Weapon Systems

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management